NASA:飞行汽车想盈利,还要10年

2019-09-21 00:02

敢押宝飞行汽车,只靠胆量毫无疑问不足。

客观事实是:Volocopter针对飞行汽车的运营模式有过深入剖析,更是对商业服务销售市场的分辨加上商品自身 ,才吸引住到戴姆勒、intel、吉利的投资。

飞行汽车销售市场究竟有多少发展潜力,他们在官网上,说的非常清楚:

Volocopter飞行汽车

最先,Volocopter共享了3组调查统计数据:

1、2030年,60%的人口数量必须住在大城市,公共基础设施将会承受不住,开启大城市空中交通是最好是的发展方向。

2、90%左右的大都市,飞机场间距市区的都低于30km。

3、英国的交通出行资料显示:70%的道路交通出行,均值负荷总数为1.3人。

拥有这3组统计数据,她们才决策:打造出这款飞行汽车、续驶在30km上下、两人坐位。

针对第二条,Volocopter还得出了1组详尽统计数据:

70%的大都市,飞机场间距市区不上20km,比如:孟买、悉尼。

93%的大都市,飞机场间距市区不上30km,比如:广州市、休斯敦。

左右大城市中的绝大部分,每日开展的全是短路线交通出行。而路面路面的均值行车速率不上50km/h,飞行汽车却能够真实以80-100km/h的速率行车。

二者较为出来,飞行汽车的交通出行時间能够减缩一大半。

Volocopter还拿纽约机场干了举例说明:

约翰肯尼迪飞机场间距市区不上 30km,乘座Volocopter的飞行汽车,大概25-30分鐘就能够进行一次交通出行。

基本公路交通用时多长时间?90%的人超出60分鐘,50%的人甚至超过90分钟。

处理路面拥挤,减缩交通出行時间。做为这种全新升级的交通出行,飞行汽车证实了自身深化产品化的优点。

Volocopter飞行汽车

但最重要的一个,Volocopter自始至终沒有提:

飞行汽车什么时候规模性落地式?什么时候又能保证赢利?

幸亏,左右难题,NASA得出了她们的参考答案:

和SAE的无人驾驶规范相同,有关飞行汽车的规范等级分类,NASA也取出了一整套她们的表述:

一級:在特定地区內部,开展验证检测或是实际操作演试

二级:融合全自动輔助安全驾驶系统软件,能够资金投入产品化应用,并在高密度航线行车

三级:高密度航线,资金投入产品化应用,多方位、有确保的无人驾驶

四级:中等水平相对密度航线,产品化应用,每辆车飞行汽车的自动驾驶系统能够合作

五级:致密航线,产品化应用,高宽比融合的无人驾驶互联网

六级:普及化空中交通计划方案,不断提升无人驾驶互联网

对于赢利难题,NASA空中出行项目经理Davis Hackenberg给出了自己的预测:

从今天开始,飞行汽车要想赢利,最少也要等10年時间。

依照她们的等级分类规范,Davis Hackenberg预测分析:2021年,飞行汽车能够保持一級规范。2028年到2030年,则能够看见四级规范落地式,那时候才适合讨论飞行汽车的盈利话题。

Volocopter飞行汽车

2017年,戴姆勒项目投资Volocopter后,曾任戴姆勒CEO的蔡澈得出了那样几句赠言:

将来,安全驾驶梦必定会转换为航空飞行梦,人们终究会打开最后层面的交通出行。

假如蔡澈的赠言确实保持,不仅是Volocopter、戴姆勒、intel、吉利的获胜,也是人们追求完美更效率高交通出行的获胜。

另一个,还将证实事情:在自身颠复的路面上,人们从未停住过步伐。

英文版

English version

Dare to bet on flying cars, there is no doubt that there is no shortage of guts.

The objective fact is: Volocopter has in-depth analysis of the operating mode of the flying car, and it is the differentiation of the commercial service sales market plus the commodity itself, which attracts investment in Daimler, intel and Geely.

How much development potential does the flying car sales market have? They are very clear on the official website:

Volocopter飞行汽车

First, Volocopter shared three sets of survey statistics:

1. In 2030, 60% of the population must live in a big city, public infrastructure will not be able to withstand, and opening up big city air traffic is the best development direction.

2, about 90% of the metropolis, the airport is less than 30km away from the urban area.

3. The traffic data of the UK shows that 70% of the road traffic travels, and the total load is 1.3.

With these three sets of statistics, they decided: to build this flying car, continue driving around 30km, two people sitting.

For the second article, Volocopter also obtained a detailed set of statistics:

In 70% of metropolitan areas, the airport is less than 20km away from the city, such as Mumbai and Sydney.

93% of metropolitan areas, the airport is not 30km away from the city, such as: Guangzhou, Houston.

Most of the big cities in the world are all short-circuit traffic. The average driving speed of the road surface is not 50km/h, but the flying car can actually drive at a speed of 80-100km/h.

The two are relatively out, and the travel time of flying cars can be reduced by more than half.

Volocopter also took the example of New York Airport:

The John F. Kennedy Airport is less than 30km from the city. It is a 25-minute flight from Volocopter.

How long does it take for basic road traffic? 90% of people exceed 60 minutes, and 50% even exceed 90 minutes.

Handling road congestion and reducing traffic time. As a new upgrade to the traffic, the flying car confirmed its own advantages of deepening productization.

But the most important one, Volocopter did not mention from beginning to end:

When is the flying car's large-scale floor-standing? When can I guarantee profit?

Fortunately, NASA got their reference answer:

Similar to SAE's driverless specifications, NASA also took out a complete set of statements about the standard classification of flying vehicles:

Level 1: Conduct verification testing or actual operation test within a specific region

Level 2: Integrated automatic assisted driving system software, able to invest in commercial applications and drive on high-density routes

Level 3: High-density routes, capital investment in product application, multi-faceted, assured unmanned driving

Level 4: medium-level relative density route, product application, automatic driving system for each car flying car can cooperate

Level 5: Dense routes, productized applications, high-width ratio unmanned Internet

Level 6: Popularize air traffic plan and continuously improve unmanned Internet

For the profit problem, NASA air travel project manager Davis Hackenberg gave his prediction:

Starting today, flying cars need to wait at least 10 years to make a profit.

According to their classification rules, Davis Hackenberg predicts that in 2021, the flying car will be able to maintain a level one specification. From 2028 to 2030, you can see the four-level normative landing style, then it is suitable to discuss the profitable topic of flying cars.

In 2017, after the Daimler project invested in Volocopter, Tsai Chin, the former CEO of Daimler, got a few words:

In the future, a safe driving dream will definitely be converted into an aviation flight dream, and people will eventually open the final level of traffic.

If Tsai Chee’s gift is indeed maintained, not only is the victory of Volocopter, Daimler, intel, and Geely, but also the pursuit of perfection, efficiency and high traffic.

The other will also confirm the fact that people have never stopped at the pace of their own subversion.

(图/文编译:飞行汽车 http://www.flycar.com.cn/
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