2019年10月10日，波音公司(波音)与保时捷公司(保时捷)签署了一项谅解备忘录，共同探索高端城市空中交通市场。有观点认为这一产品的市场定位是为富豪提供私人“飞行跑车”；但基于两家公司的经济利益考虑，该产品更可能是一款用于提供按需服务的机队运营飞行器。
私人飞机与机队运营方式
“飞行跑车”市场面向的是希望自己驾驶飞行器的个人。Terrafugia，AeroMobil和PAL-V等公司针对这一市场推出了相应的产品，价格从200,000美元到1,200,000美元不等，成为了超级跑车市场或高端汽车市场的分支。
驾驶私人飞行器是极具吸引力的，但由于价格的原因，飞行跑车的市场规模并不大。根据AeroMobil公司的分析，2019年美国豪车市场规模将达到100亿美元，但绝大部分车辆的价格都在15万美元以下；AeroMobil推测2030年的飞行汽车市场上，超过50万美元的产品约为1万架，其中私人购买的产品约为1000架/年。
机队运营的方式可以大幅降低UAM市场的成本。乘客无需为私人飞机支付20万美元以上的预付款，而是为每次旅行支付合理的费用，从而获得高端服务。保时捷咨询公司认为2035年eVTOL市场总额将达到320亿美元。机队运营具有较高的上座率和飞行器利用率，然而即便如此，其成本仍远高于传统汽车交通方式，因而无法大规模替代地面交通。
目前汽车的运营成本约为0.72美元/英里，平均乘客数量(不保护驾驶员)1.67人，因而汽车的每座英里成本低至0.43美元。而今年的Elevate峰会上优步预测，城市空运初期的每座英里成本将超过5.7美元。
由于机队运营方式经济性相对较好、私人飞行器价格过于高昂，同时飞行员执照也是限制私人飞行器使用的因素，因而对于波音和保时捷而言，将产品定位于机队运营飞行器是更为明智的选择。
市场规模以及目标客户
城市空运市场将首先基于现有直升机空运开始增长，随后与现有汽车服务竞争。近年来通勤直升机业务出现了增长，Voom公司在圣保罗、墨西哥城等地获得了良好的表现，Blade公司在纽约开展了相关业务，优步也加入了纽约的直升机空运竞争，并布局湾区的直升机业务。
目前，直升机的运营成本为每飞行小时1200美元，每座英里成本9-10美元(六座)，比优步预测的城市空运初期成本高出70-80%。运营成本的大幅下降可能会有利推动市场规模扩大，其增幅可能达到3倍甚至更多，相关乘客可能由高端汽车服务分流而来，如优步Black服务的成本一般为优步X的三倍以上，随着城市空运价格的降低，部分优步Black用户可能会放弃汽车服务转向空运服务。
目前来看，直升机服务价格高昂，而且并不能保证有效节省时间。例如使用优步提供的直升机服务前往肯尼迪机场，由于交通驳接的复杂性，花费的时间可能较公共交通更长；进行了测试，两位乘客花费364美元搭乘直升机，总计用时43分钟，其中直升机飞行时间仅有8分钟。
用户体验
对于富裕阶层，优质的用户体验是服务中重要的一环，例如航空业的优先登机服务、休息室服务等。
飞行器外形和内饰设计也是用户体验的重要因素。即使客户没有购买私人飞机、而是选择机队服务，外形及内饰也会影响价格不敏感客户的选择。保时捷设计工作室(Porsche Design Studio)在此领域具有丰富的专业知识。
保时捷有强烈的经济动机关注私人飞行器市场，该市场可作为其汽车产品的补充。而波音公司在高端飞行跑车领域与相关品牌的竞争不显著。
波音与保时捷对于机队运营飞行器市场有强烈的兴趣，其产品可能会始于规模较小的富人/商务人士核心市场。对于保时捷和波音而言，这将代表一个全新的、有吸引力的市场，随着时间的推移，城市空运市场将会增长。赢得最初溢价市场的公司将在细分市场中拥有巨大的市场地位，并且可以打入大众市场。
英文版
English version
On October 10, 2019, Boeing (Boeing) and Porsche (Porsche) signed a memorandum of understanding to explore the high-end urban air traffic market. There is a view that the market positioning of this product is to provide private "flight sports cars" for the rich; but based on the economic interests of the two companies, the product is more likely to be a fleet operation aircraft for on-demand services.
Private aircraft and fleet operations
The "Flying Sports Car" market is aimed at individuals who want to fly their own aircraft. Companies such as Terrafugia, AeroMobil and PAL-V have launched products for this market, ranging in price from $200,000 to $1,200,000, making them a branch of the super sports car market or the high-end car market.
Driving a private aircraft is very attractive, but due to price reasons, the market for flying sports cars is not large. According to AeroMobil's analysis, the US luxury car market will reach $10 billion in 2019, but most of the vehicles are priced below $150,000; AeroMobil speculates that in the 2030's flying car market, more than $500,000 in products are about It is 10,000, of which about 1,000 are purchased by private individuals.
The way the fleet operates can significantly reduce the cost of the UAM market. Instead of paying a prepayment of more than $200,000 for a private jet, passengers pay a reasonable fee for each trip to get high-end service. Porsche Consulting believes that the total eVTOL market will reach $32 billion in 2035. The fleet operation has a high attendance rate and aircraft utilization, but even so, its cost is still much higher than the traditional car transportation mode, so it cannot replace ground transportation on a large scale.
At present, the operating cost of the car is about $0.72/mile, and the average number of passengers (not protecting the driver) is 1.67, so the cost per mile of the car is as low as $0.43. At this year's Elevate summit, Uber predicts that the cost per mile in the early days of urban air transport will exceed $5.7.
Because the fleet operation mode is relatively economical, the price of private aircraft is too high, and the pilot license is also a factor limiting the use of private aircraft, it is more sensible for Boeing and Porsche to position the product to operate the aircraft. .
Market size and target customers
The urban air transport market will begin to grow based on existing helicopter air transport and then compete with existing car services. In recent years, the commuter helicopter business has grown. Voom has achieved good performance in Sao Paulo and Mexico City. Blade has carried out related business in New York. Uber has also joined the helicopter air transportation competition in New York and deployed helicopters in the Bay Area. business.
At present, the operating cost of helicopters is 1,200 US dollars per flight hour, and the cost per mile is 9-10 US dollars (six seats), which is 70-80% higher than the initial cost of urban air transportation predicted by Uber. The sharp drop in operating costs may help to expand the market, which may increase by three times or more. The relevant passengers may be diverted from high-end car services. For example, the cost of Uber Black services is more than three times that of Uber X. As the city's air freight prices decrease, some Uber Black users may abandon their car service and turn to air freight services.
At present, helicopter services are expensive and cannot guarantee effective time savings. For example, using Uber's helicopter service to JFK airport, due to the complexity of traffic connections, it may take longer than public transportation; Bloomberg tested that two passengers spent $364 on a helicopter, which took 43 minutes. The helicopter flight time is only 8 minutes.
user experience
For the affluent class, a quality user experience is an important part of the service, such as priority boarding services in the aviation industry and lounge services.
The shape and interior design of the aircraft is also an important factor in the user experience. Even if the customer does not purchase a private jet, but chooses fleet services, the shape and interior will affect the choice of price-insensitive customers. Porsche Design Studio has a wealth of expertise in this field.
Porsche has a strong economic incentive to focus on the private aircraft market, which complements its automotive products. Boeing’s competition with related brands in the high-end flying sports car sector is not significant.
Boeing and Porsche have a strong interest in the fleet operating aircraft market, and their products may start in the smaller core market of wealthy/business people. For Porsche and Boeing, this will represent a new and attractive market, and the urban air transport market will grow over time. Companies that have won the initial premium market will have a huge market position in the market segment and can enter the mass market.
（图/文编译：飞行汽车 http://www.flycar.com.cn/）
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